Monday night disappointment for Washington.
With the Philadelphia Eagles’ surprising back-to-back losses to the Denver Broncos and New York Giants, the division suddenly tightened.
These shock results gave Washington Commanders a shot at a tie for first place if they could beat the Chicago Bears.
A win would also mean they were on pace for last season’s performance, which was 4-2 at the end of Week 6.
This game was critical, not just for the division, but because Washington now faces a brutal four-game stretch.
On paper, the game looked like an easy win – if there is such a thing in the NFL these days. Washington’s top-ranked running attack was going up against a bottom-tier Chicago run defense.
Of course, that was not how it played out. Washington channelled the Ron Rivera-era habit of ‘missing open goals’ to snatch a 25-24 loss from the jaws of victory.
Turnovers and missed points
Not to state the bleeding obvious, but the key difference between the two teams was turnovers, and a missed field goal.
Any time you give up three turnovers, you are almost certainly going to lose. The stats say that teams that lose the turnover battle win only 22% of the time – and that drops to just 10% when you give up three.
When it comes to turnovers, it is also about the timing. We had overcome the first two, but the last turnover came when Washington was marching down the field, on a drive that needed to burn the last six minutes of the game.
With 3:10 left, on 3rd-and-1, Jayden Daniels bobbled the snap, and ‘Bill’ Croskey-Merritt could not secure it, coughing up the ball at the worst possible moment.
That gifted the ball to Chicago and, with how Washington’s defense was giving up yardage, it was all on Chicago not to mess it up. With only three minutes left, the Bears only needed to go about 20 yards and then chew the clock for an easy finish.
It also goes back to the missed field goal. Had Matt Gay not hit the upright, Chicago might never have had the chance to win it. Washington’s defense, for all its flaws, usually stiffens in the red zone.
Defensive woes
In terms of the rest of game, it was not just about the turnovers. Even without those, Chicago looked more likely to win based on the numbers. Chicago outpassed and outran Washington.
Chicago did keep their opponents in the game through penalties and mistakes, despite Washington’s turnovers, in particular handing over four first downs through penalties.
Washington’s defense looked as suspect as ever, giving up runs and passes in equal measure. Its only vague strength seems to be holding teams to field goals.
Washington’s defense will not win you games. The team relies on the offense to score more points than the opposition and to keep the other team’s offense off the field. When that plan fails, the defense is not going to save the day.
Individual performances
Much like the game against the Falcons – where Bijan Robinson got 180 combined yards – Bears running back D’Andre Swift netted 108 yards on the ground and 67 in the air, for a total of 175 yards.
Looking at his other performances this year, he had run for an average of 34 yards a game and 3.4 yards per carry. He netted 7.7 yards per carry against Washington. Other teams’ running backs are killing us week in, week out.
Deebo Samuel had his worst game of the season, but my read of his play was that he was nursing an injury, hence his lack of practice in the week. With Noah Brown and Terry McLaurin out with injuries, Washington was rapidly running out of options on offense and needed Samuel on the field to keep Chicago guessing.
“Bill” Croskey-Merritt was disappointing. Given last week’s performance, and given the Bears suspect run defense, we all expected a great game from him. He only received one pass all game, which seems like a missed opportunity. He fumbled the ball for the second week in a row, not a trend you want to see continue.
I would like to be positive about JD5’s performance, as based on passer rating it was his best of the year. But of course, either of his two turnovers cost the game for Washington. Given how good Daniels has been all year with ball security, and given the consequence of the turnovers, it is hard to call that a winning performance.
He excels at running when the play breaks down and he spots an opportunity to run. But designed run plays for JD5 have looked suspect all year and this game was the same.
The main positives from the day?
Luke McCaffrey has cemented his role as kickoff returner. He averaged over 31 yards per return, regularly giving Washington great field position around their own 40-yard line.
If he continues to develop as a wide receiver, he may turn into a bit of a gem. As a result of Luke’s returns, Washington now leads the league with an average of 33 yards per kick-off return.
JD5 – not counting his two turnovers – had his best game of the season, with his best passer rating and most touchdown passes.
Looking ahead, if the Eagles are going to win the division, which still seems likely, then Washington will be relying on a Wild Card slot again.
To stay in the hunt, they will need to find another gear over the next four games, or risk slipping into no-man’s land.
