It has not been the best week to be a Baltimore Ravens fan.
Even so, there were plenty of positives to take out of Sunday night’s 41-40 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
The Ravens dominated for much of the game on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL.
However, none of that matters if you do not get the job done.
The Bills now own the tiebreaker over the Ravens. This could prove crucial when deciding routes to the Super Bowl come early January.
It also makes the game against the Chiefs in Week 4 absolutely crucial. It is hard to see the Ravens winning two more games than both the Chiefs and Bills over the 17 games this season.
A knack for losing leads
Most concerningly, though, is that this has been a theme going back several years.
The Ravens do not win enough games when leading by multiple touchdowns in the fourth quarter. That includes a scary 42-38 loss to the Dolphins, losing from three touchdowns up in 2022.
In general, Baltimore is strong when playing top teams in the NFL – in the regular season at least.
It is hard to coach out the scenario, without just continuing to dominate games you are winning already by 10 points.
Curiously, the reasons for the loss seem different this time.
Firstly, I do not think the Bills win if Derrick Henry does not fumble – though the loss is very much on him.
The bigger issue is that the Ravens got cautious on offense in the final minutes. John Harbaugh is traditionally one of the most aggressive coaches in situational football, certainly in short yardage.
Missed opportunities to close the game out
The Ravens appeared to play for a couple of three and outs – including on the play Henry fumbled on.
In reality though, I think they backed their running game to get a few crucial first downs and it backfired.
The more surprising move was not to go for it on 4th-and-3 from their own 38 with 90 seconds to go.
The Ravens were also cautious on defense on the Bills’ last few drives.
It would have been heavily criticised had the Ravens failed to convert. But did anyone think the Bills would get a field goal from the ensuing drive?
If they were any closer to the first down, I think they would have tried it.
They went for it on 4th-and-1 from their 43 against the Chiefs in 2021 in a very similar scenario. It was a costly lesson for the Ravens to learn.
They cannot afford to keep losing games they think they have won.
This result, while not unexpected at kick-off, could cost them dearly later in the year. They cannot do it again.
