The Cleveland Browns come to town!
Whilst this 2-5 opponent might not be the strongest outfit in the league, they do possess a very impressive defense, led by one of my favourite non-Patriots players, Myles Garrett.
The offense’s biggest test
I have spent weeks waxing lyrical about how impressed I am with Drake Maye and the New England Patriots’ offense.
However, despite the gaudy stats being put up, it is worth remembering that it has not exactly been a murderer’s row of defenses we have played so far.
Here are the defenses the Pats have faced, along with their defensive EPA rating:
- Raiders (23rd)
- Dolphins (32nd)
- Steelers (25th)
- Panthers (21st)
- Bills (22nd)
- Saints (19th)
- Titans (27th)
The Browns defense the Patriots will face on Sunday is ranked 1st in PFF grade and 5th in EPA.
Maye and the passing game have been tremendously impressive. They are currently 1st in the league in EPA per pass, but the Browns are 2nd in PFF pass rush grade.
The Patriots will need a plan for Myles Garret and a way to stop him taking over the game on his own. I would imagine there will be a lot of double teams from tight ends to assist Will Campbell and Morgan Moses.
This is definitely Drake & Co.’s biggest test, but if they can tame the Browns’ pass rush, they are there to be had.
Make a bad offense look bad
The New England Patriots defense has played pretty well, on the whole, but has started slowly in most games.
The Pats allowed 10 points on their opening two drives last week to the Tennessee Titans.
The Browns are the lowest ranked offense and pass blocking team by PFF’s metrics. They are also 30th in the league in points per game.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has started three games, and has the lowest average depth of target in the NFL and the third-quickest time to throw. His dink-and-dunk strategy is not necessarily a safe one though, as he has managed to log six turnover worthy plays in just three starts.
The Pats have no business allowing explosive plays or a fast start to a Browns offense of this quality.
I think it will be a low scoring affair, but the Pats extend the win streak to five games, 24-10.
