First off, let us take a look at the schedule.
In brackets, I have added ESPN’s post-Draft team rankings. Those rankings have the Washington Commanders ranked 6th.
Week 1: vs New York Giants (32)
Week 2: @ Green Bay Packers (8)
Week 3: vs Las Vegas Raiders (26)
Week 4: @ Atlanta Falcons (18)
Week 5: @ Los Angeles Chargers (11)
Week 6: vs Chicago Bears (21)
Week 7: @ Dallas Cowboys (19)
Week 8: @ Kansas City Chiefs (1)
Week 9: vs Seattle Seahawks (16)
Week 10: vs Detroit Lions (4)
Week 11: @ Miami Dolphins (20)
Week 12: Bye
Week 13: vs Denver Broncos (14)
Week 14: @ Minnesota Vikings (9)
Week 15: @ New York Giants (32)
Week 16: vs Philadelphia Eagles (2)
Week 17: vs Dallas Cowboys (19)
Week 18: @ Philadelphia Eagles (2)
According to analysts, the Commanders have the 8th-toughest schedule. And in the only article I can find – ironically on a Giants web page! – last year’s schedule was supposed to be the 16th-hardest.
Before the bye
Breaking the schedule down, Washington have 11 games before the bye week. Six of those teams are in the bottom half of the league rankings.
Only the Chiefs and Lions are ranked higher than Washington, with the Packers ranked 8th, just behind Washington.
Seattle and Los Angeles, ranked 16th and 11th respectively, will not be easy but look to be the sort of games Washington need to win.
Based on all that, I would expect at least six wins before the break, and ideally more like eight. Hopefully, Washington will go into the bye week sitting around 8-3.
The home straight
After the bye week, the Giants will hopefully be tanking and with luck, so will Dallas, although they love to spoil the Commanders’ seasons. Denver and Minnesota are unlikely to be easy, and the Eagles will still be the team to beat.
Once again, I would expect at least two wins after the bye, but hope for four or more. That means we should be looking at eight ‘easy’ wins for the season, but more reasonably 10-12 wins.
Where the battle will be won
It will be the few tough games – Kansas, Detroit and both games against Philadelphia – that will decide the seeding for the playoffs.
Detroit will be out for blood after being eliminated by the Commanders in the playoffs last year. In turn, the same is true for Washington against Philadelphia, bearing in mind I think they were robbed in that game, despite their turnovers.
I am glad my team has Philadelphia at home first as that will set the tone. Hopefully, that will keep the last game of the season as an epic finale, if not an opportunity to rest some starters!
My prediction for the year? I am going to play it safe and say that Washington will get to 13-4, a minor improvement on last year’s 12-5.
