This is a litmus test game for the New England Patriots.
It was reassuring to see the New England Patriots take Carolina’s lunch money last week, but that only proved they are better than the bottom of the barrel.
This game will indicate if the Pats have the ability to hang with the big boys in the league, or do they still have a way to go?
Here are my keys to the game.
A stoppable force vs. a moveable object
Sometimes, we salivate over the idea of one team’s strength facing off against another team’s strength. However, in this one, we may have the opposite.
The Bills are one of the worst run defense teams in the league. They give up an average of 6.0 yards per carry – third worst in the NFL). They give up the third-most 20+ yard runs and the second-most 40+ yards runs. Additionally, they have missed 24 tackles across the last two games.
This is all great news for the Pats. Or, it would be if we could run the ball.
The Patriots currently rank dead last in the NFL in EPA per rush and 31st in PFF’s team rushing grade. However, if the Pats can have any success on the ground, this will open up the play action and bootleg passing game. This is when Drake Maye is often at his best.
Good clean football
Picking up a road win against a division rival with the reigning MVP, the league leader in rushing touchdowns and an offense that ranks first in EPS per play, per rush and per pass is always a going to be a challenge.
Simply put, I am not sure that the Patriots are talented enough yet to hang with Buffalo blow for blow.
Having said that, I believe that we can force a big old upset if we play clean football. This means reducing the penalty count and winning the turnover battle.
That may be easier said than done though, as Buffalo have only committed a single turnover this season, and their defense has snagged one a game.
The Pats, on the other hand, have only managed to take the ball away on defense three times in four games, but have six turnovers offensively.
This pattern has to change, if we want to see an upset in Orchard Park!
If the Pats keep things clean, I can see a close affair: something in the realms of 30-27.
However, if the turnover woes rear their ugly head again, this one could get ugly!
