It has been a busy offseason for Buffalo Bills General Manager Brandon Beane.
Prior to the NFL Draft, the Bills front office got a flurry of renewals done with core players. Josh Allen, Terrel Bernard, Gregory Rousseau, Khalil Shakir and Christian Benford all put pen to paper.
But as far as many are concerned, one main deal remains to be done: James Cook.
It seems both sides are far apart on what a deal looks like, with Cook understandably holding out of Organized Team Activities (OTAs) until very recently.
To his credit, he practised fully on Tuesday, 10 June and told reporters afterwards it is “his team” and that is why he is out there.
The Bills are due to start filming HBO’s Hard Knocks series this offseason. At this rate, James Cook’s contract saga may well become a major storyline for the show.
James Cook’ing
As a rookie, Cook was behind Devin Singletary in the Bills’ running back room. In 2022, he carried the ball 89 times for 507 yards and two touchdowns.
Breaking out in Year 2 for 1,567 yards from scrimmage cemented his status as the Bills’ lead back.
He followed that up with another 1,000-yard season in 2024 – 1,009 rushing yards to be exact, plus a mammoth 18 total touchdowns.
Beyond all else though, Cook showed – on multiple occasions – that he was a playmaker, capable of performing at the highest levels when it counts the most.
What does Cook want?
We got a good idea for this early in the offseason when James Cook pinned his own comment on Instagram Live. He stated that “$15million year” was his target.
That would place him equal-third for average annual value (AAV) for running backs – behind Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey, and tied with Derrick Henry.
That figure would represent a higher AAV than players like Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor.
Is the Cook-ie worth the crumble?
Cook simply does not command the same respect on the football field as the three aforementioned running backs who all earn $15 million dollars or more.
In addition, Barkley, McCaffrey and Henry have each altered the way opponents play their respective teams. They give opposing defensive coordinators headaches that Cook simply does not do.
Over the last two seasons, Cook has 2,638 rushing yards over 33 games. Saquon Barkley had 2,005 rushing yards this season alone, in just 16 games.
Cook’s production simply is not at a level to warrant that sort of money.
What are the options on the table?
Cook has one year left on his deal and turns 26 during the season. He likely will have only one major deal to sign in his career and this will be it, whether it is with the Bills or elsewhere.
So you cannot argue with his desire to seize the opportunity and maximise the value. Unfortunately for Cook, his situation lacks leverage.
He will need to turn up this season to avoid fines eating away at his final-year salary.
In the event a deal is not struck this offseason or during the season, then he will be a pending free agent next offseason.
The franchise tag is then a viable option. According to overthecap.com, that figure in 2026 would be $14.1 million dollars.
That figure is lower than the average value Cook wants from his multi-year deal. The full franchise tag value sits on the Bills cap figure like an albatross around their neck with no manoeuvrability. That is not Brandon Beane’s style.
There is a scenario where Cook plays out his rookie deal in 2025, plays 2026 on the franchise tag and then becomes a free agent as he turns 28.
That will massively affect his opportunity for future earnings and I am sure his agent will be aware of that eventuality.
Summary
One element I have not explored is the impact that not having Cook suit up would have on the Bills offense.
Of course, that is something a Super Bowl contender would want to avoid – though it is unlikely to manifest with the fine structure in place.
My prediction is that Beane and Cook agree to terms this offseason.
A deal in the region of $13 million per season over four years would mirror many of the deals seen for other running backs of a similar standard.
That might seem slightly generous, but with the cap set to rise significantly year on year, a deal of that size – structured in a team-friendly way – should age well if Cook contributes to the level we expect from him.
Crucially though, the Bills’ record-breaking offence would then be all set to head into the 2025 season – no drama, no holdouts.
